There have been many suggestions that the sell-off in government bonds in the US was overdone. The argument was that weakness was a result of Trump’s victory, but that it is far too early to know what Trump will do or the effect it will have. We have some sympathy… Read the article
It seems apposite that Matteo Renzi’s term as Italian Prime minister should end in this way. For investors, this referendum was a surreal distraction. The population were voting on the nuance of domestic decision making, but Eurozone membership means that there is limited scope for those decisions to impact the… Read the article
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “Suppose that if you invest £70,000, I’ll offer you a bet on a coin toss. If it comes up heads, you win £14,000 pounds, if tails you lose £7,000.” Should you take the bet?
Early in 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)… Read the article
It might be seen as nit-picking, but when someone asks for your views on the US Dollar, it is right to respond: “against what?”
More attention is being paid to the Dollar at the moment after recent strength. The rise in bond yields since the election and a likely rate… Read the article
You might be forgiven for thinking that running an economy is easy. Much market commentary often suggests that it is blindingly obvious what should and shouldn’t be done.
Like football fans berating managers and players from stands it is tempting to think we could do a better job. The benefit… Read the article
The US economy is ‘late cycle’. You hear this a lot these days.
The terminology is interesting. Are there signals flashing that the US is on the cusp of a downturn? Is it simply a view that we are ‘overdue’ a recession?
Or might this be an example of the… Read the article
All those wasted hours of analysis.
The investment industry has produced countless pages of content on the US election; who would win, how markets would respond, how to protect against risk and generate returns… The consensus was that the result would be hard to call, but that a Clinton win… Read the article
It’s Brexit all over again. The surge in anti-establishment sentiment is definitively global. Brexit can no longer be dismissed as a freak event. It is a trend. Donald Trump looks almost certain to win, by defying his party, the media, and conventional politics. Populism is coming to power. The critical… Read the article
Most commentary on today’s election begins with a series of caveats: “the outcome is uncertain”, “we don’t know which policies the winner will be willing/able to put into action”, and “there are a whole host of other forces that will drive markets.” It would probably be sensible to stop there.… Read the article
Stuart Fowler, one of the most lucid commentators on the investment industry, clearly explains the problems faced by all investors looking for a manager to run their money:
“Assume [the investor] believes that there are [skilled managers]…Now she needs either to select the managers herself or to select an… Read the article