Why hasn’t the market moved more on the Brexit deal?
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A summary of Q3 2019: The V-shaped and L-shaped recoveries
Markets
In some ways, the third quarter of 2019 was a microcosm of the environment since the financial crisis.
Rapid declines in equity markets turned out to be a buying opportunity given a relatively rapid rebound:
While bond yields, despite threatening to sell-off from their lows, didn’t reach… Read the article
The market is being sensible on inflation. For the right reasons?
The market often seems like a London commuter with an umbrella and a mobile phone: failing to look ahead and causing damage to bystanders by overreacting to near term threats.
But there has certainly not been any overreaction when it comes to potential inflation. The recent drone attacks on Arabian… Read the article
Will we look back on these bonds as a new tech bubble?
Behavioural Finance
For those of us who weren’t around during the dot.com boom and bust, this period can seem like an historical oddity. It’s often used as a classic example of the foolishness of human beings and the ability of markets to make blindingly obvious mistakes.
From the vantage point of hindsight… Read the article
Central banks should consider giving people money
Economics
The following article originally appeared in the Financial Times.
In the past, central banks set the price of money using interest rates. In the future, it seems, they will be giving it away. This week the US Federal Reserve… Read the article
Central banks: crossroads or dead-end?
Economics
Central banks are at a crossroads, and if they carry on, maybe a dead-end. The good news, though, is twofold: central bankers recognise the need to reassess their frameworks and they are coming at it from a point of strength:… Read the article
A summary of Q2 2019: European bonds can only rally
Behavioural Finance Markets
In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):
We’ve discussed… Read the article
Is the market omniscient or foolish?
Behavioural Finance Markets
Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘
Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article
Brexit: Three years on
Markets
It is now three years since Britain voted to leave the EU (in case anyone needed reminding). We are all aware of never-ending twists and turns in this saga, even if we are none the wiser as to the final conclusion. But, we ask, with the benefit of hindsight, how… Read the article
Keeping ourselves honest – A response to Joe Wiggins
Behavioural Finance
Last month Joe Wiggins noted that fund managers frequently claim to make money by exploiting the ‘behavioural biases of other investors,’ but are often unable to explain how they avoid falling victim to these biases themselves.
Now it could be that ‘exploiting behavioural bias’ is simply… Read the article