We wrote in May about the challenges facing Turkey, and in July about how these threats have the potential to produce extreme outcomes.
Last week saw the manifestation of these challenges. The Turkish Lira decline on Friday was among the largest one-day currency moves… Read the article
The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to raise rates in the UK at today’s monetary policy committee, potentially marking the first time the base rate has been above 0.5% since 2009. Could this be the start of a transition to a rising rate environment similar to that seen… Read the article
Remember last year when most financial commentary was saying that market volatility was too low? That was a pretty unusual state of affairs.
Most of the time market commentary presents us with a very different picture of markets. Asset prices “plunge,” “plummet,” “sink” and of course “crash.” Or they… Read the article
No political consensus lasts forever – at least not without reform. The pre-eminence of the liberal economic order prior to the global financial crisis might have tempted us to think that this time would be different.
Instead of political convergence, however, we have witnessed growing fragmentation across… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Markets
Today, the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, marking what some see as the official start of Donald Trump’s ‘trade war.’ The trade war story has come to dominate market commentary as the second quarter has progressed, deflecting attention from the… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Economics
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am… Read the article
This time it’s Italy.
I used to believe that the Eurozone was undemocratic. Now I’m not so sure. The simple view is that national electorates have been subordinated. When Greece votes to reject austerity, its government is forced back to the table, and delivers more of the… Read the article
A story in the UK press this week suggested that the UK distributer of Panini football stickers (Connect Group Plc) has delivered only half the profits from the stickers that it had expected after a ‘major drop off in demand.’ The share price duly responded:
… Read the article
Markets reacted sharply to the weekend’s news that ongoing attempts to form a coalition government in Italy had collapsed after the President’s rejection of the proposed Finance Minister, prompting likely new elections later this year.
Unstable governments in Italy are nothing new, but markets… Read the article