It’s a cliché that not all emerging markets are the same, because it’s true.
Nor does everyone use the same definition of what an emerging market is: some will point to living standards and economic growth, others to the rule of law or governmental structures, still others to the depth… Read the article
The fiscal response to Covid-19 across many countries is set to increase debt-to-GDP ratios across the world and has prompted some staggering headlines.
Three areas of concern have been raised: whether growing debt will (i) increase the cost of future borrowing, (ii) impair growth, and (iii) be… Read the article
Investment Industry Markets
We’ve discussed in several posts how the market reaction to the coronavirus outbreak shared many ‘classic’ behavioural traits with episodes of the past:
When we talk about market ‘episodes,’ we often mean periods where investors appear to give up on their own long term beliefs due to what prices are doing right now.
It is common to see correlated declines across range of… Read the article
Behavioural Finance Markets
With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.
It is just as hard to consider these rebounds in the context of economic data, which suggests… Read the article
Economics Investment Industry
In the last week there has been a reasonable bounce in equities from their March lows and some moderation in market volatility.
Although it is not much to write home about, with this relative calm there has been some shift in market commentary. Price moves themselves Read the article
Behavioural Finance Economics
“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article
The last few weeks brought about enormous changes to our society, to our personal lives and to the economic environment as we know it. The spreading of a deadly virus across the world prompted many governments to put out unprecedented restrictions on businesses and the wider population, while at the… Read the article
Two weeks ago, I wrote about how market responses to coronavirus fears – which had initially been relatively muted and discerning – were showing signs of episodic behaviour.
Since then… Read the article
On the 11th February there were two very different headlines on the coronavirus:
This was indicative of confusion that many felt at the time. Though he later qualified his statement, Dalio seemed to be reflecting a complacency in… Read the article