It is always staggering how quickly markets appear to move on from one issue to the next. Only six months ago (or 45% ago in Nasdaq-time) most investors (including us) were petrified as to the implications of the pandemic. Safety and… Read the article
Are we witnessing the bursting of a tech bubble? After eye-watering gains this year, the US technology sector saw declines of around 10% in only four trading days.
The New York Stock Exchange FANG+ Index had been up as much as 85% in 2020 (50% above even its ‘pre-COVID’ peak):… Read the article
Last week it was announced the UK had suffered a bigger GDP decline than any other major European economy in Q2 2020. Though this will prompt the usual political point-scoring, many had already anticipated that the UK would be one of the worst hit, simply due to… Read the article
It’s a cliché that not all emerging markets are the same, because it’s true.
Nor does everyone use the same definition of what an emerging market is: some will point to living standards and economic growth, others to the rule of law or governmental structures, still others to the depth… Read the article
The fiscal response to Covid-19 across many countries is set to increase debt-to-GDP ratios across the world and has prompted some staggering headlines.
Three areas of concern have been raised: whether growing debt will (i) increase the cost of future borrowing, (ii) impair growth, and (iii) be… Read the article
We’ve discussed in several posts how the market reaction to the coronavirus outbreak shared many ‘classic’ behavioural traits with episodes of the past:
When we talk about market ‘episodes,’ we often mean periods where investors appear to give up on their own long term beliefs due to what prices are doing right now.
It is common to see correlated declines across range of… Read the article
With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.
It is just as hard to consider these rebounds in the context of economic data, which suggests… Read the article
In the last week there has been a reasonable bounce in equities from their March lows and some moderation in market volatility.
Although it is not much to write home about, with this relative calm there has been some shift in market commentary. Price moves themselves Read the article
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article