Stuart wrote last year on some of the challenges associated with relying solely upon the Shiller P/E as a measure of equity valuation. This debate has been widely covered and is somewhat moot at any rate, given that the US market is looking expensive relative to history… Read the article
As a completely agnostic investor in a risk-free government bond, a sensible return expectation might be the yield on that bond.
Amidst the intense focus on central bank policy decisions and the latest Trump activity you’d be forgiven for barely having registered that the oil price fell more than 9% last week. Wind back the clock just over a year and it would have been front page news.
This present apathy… Read the article
Dave Fishwick posted earlier this year on the extent of volatility aversion in the industry these days and the pivotal moment that we find ourselves in when it comes to asset pricing.
I want to avoid repeating Dave’s blog on why the emphasis on reducing short term… Read the article
Humans like to think they know more about things than they really do. This is perhaps more true in finance than elsewhere, because the abundance of data lends itself to analysis, pseudo-science, and experts.
One of the data points that draws most attention is the US non-farm payrolls, which is… Read the article
We’ve been hearing a lot more noise about the risk of deflation lately. Oil price declines over the past 18 months have dragged headline inflation rates down and this has coincided with a sharp decline in market-implied inflation expectations. St Louis Fed President James Bullard recently cited this… Read the article
The last few months have been painful for investors with a range of equity indices crossing the emotive, but entirely arbitrary threshold that demarcates a “bear market”. At the same time, the narrative around the fundamental outlook has changed. Bearish views have proliferated and commentators espousing them received more airtime.… Read the article