I received the following chart from a broker earlier this week. It plots the trailing 12-month price return on the US stock market versus a survey of activity in the US manufacturing sector, where a score above 50 indicates expansion and vice versa.
The broker’s conclusion was straight-forward, “if you… Read the article
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
Eric recently wrote a fascinating piece on the ‘volatility virus’ which has contaminated the professional investment community. This blog post builds on that piece by considering the use – more specifically, the misuse – of quantitative ‘analysis’ more generally.
It is important to point out I am… Read the article
Fed officials have been particularly vocal about the slope of the yield curve this week (most notably here and here), in particular voicing concerns over a possible curve inversion (when yields on short dated bonds rise above those on long dated bonds).
The obsession… Read the article
The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.
Looking back at periods of rising US policy rates over the past 30 years, history would suggest there is nothing remarkable about today’s level of long-dated bond yields relative… Read the article
New York, New York…
Imagine the excitement. In a moment of spontaneity, you’ve decided to treat yourself and your other half to a last minute trip to New York. You’ve selected the hotel, managed to get reservations at some highly recommended restaurants and even tickets for a Broadway show, which… Read the article
With Korean missile launches, Trump’s tweets, Hurricane Harvey, NAFTA negotiations and Brexit battles, journalists have plenty to keep themselves busy.
Of course, some of today’s headline-grabbing events might bring profound and unexpected change with lasting impact on global financial markets. But then again, they may not: devastating local events such… Read the article
A lot of time collectively is spent monitoring and analysing data on investment fund flows. Is this time well spent?
The assumptions typically made are that fund flows data indicate which assets are ‘popular’ and in the absence of significant change, continued flows might suggest underlying momentum for an asset… Read the article
We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong – just ask any… Read the article
Though they might not admit it now, a number of commentators argued in the immediate post-crisis years that quantitative easing (QE) would cause inflation to rise to worrying levels in countries such as the US and UK.
At the time, I argued this view was likely to be wrong because… Read the article