The flattening of the US yield curve has inspired much commentary and hand-wringing in certain quarters lately. The concern is overdone.
Looking back at periods of rising US policy rates over the past 30 years, history would suggest there is nothing remarkable about today’s level of long-dated bond yields relative… Read the article
New York, New York…
Imagine the excitement. In a moment of spontaneity, you’ve decided to treat yourself and your other half to a last minute trip to New York. You’ve selected the hotel, managed to get reservations at some highly recommended restaurants and even tickets for a Broadway show, which… Read the article
With Korean missile launches, Trump’s tweets, Hurricane Harvey, NAFTA negotiations and Brexit battles, journalists have plenty to keep themselves busy.
Of course, some of today’s headline-grabbing events might bring profound and unexpected change with lasting impact on global financial markets. But then again, they may not: devastating local events such… Read the article
A lot of time collectively is spent monitoring and analysing data on investment fund flows. Is this time well spent?
The assumptions typically made are that fund flows data indicate which assets are ‘popular’ and in the absence of significant change, continued flows might suggest underlying momentum for an asset… Read the article
We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong – just ask any… Read the article
Though they might not admit it now, a number of commentators argued in the immediate post-crisis years that quantitative easing (QE) would cause inflation to rise to worrying levels in countries such as the US and UK.
At the time, I argued this view was likely to be wrong because… Read the article
The US economy is ‘late cycle’. You hear this a lot these days.
The terminology is interesting. Are there signals flashing that the US is on the cusp of a downturn? Is it simply a view that we are ‘overdue’ a recession?
Or might this be an example of the… Read the article
(I) Bond/equity correlation:
At our recent quarterly investment offsite, an interesting debate arose on the correlation between bonds and equities. One participant suggested bonds and equities in the US had been positively correlated in recent years, while another was firmly of the view that they had been negatively… Read the article
The July employment report showing strong jobs growth and an unemployment rate below 5% would, on the face of it, suggest a US labour market in robust health. But many commentators remain unconvinced, pointing to the continued low labour force participation rate (LFPR) – the combined percentage of… Read the article
After the UK referendum on EU membership, attention for many now turns to the next “event”: perhaps the next meeting of a major central bank, Italy’s referendum on constitutional reform, or the US presidential election. You can be certain each of these events will generate considerable… Read the article