With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.
It is just as hard to consider these rebounds in the context of economic data, which suggests… Read the article
“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article
Two weeks ago, I wrote about how market responses to coronavirus fears – which had initially been relatively muted and discerning – were showing signs of episodic behaviour.
Since then… Read the article
Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article
Yesterday the US equity market (S&P 500) reached all-time highs. Indeed so far in 2019, many major equity markets are up between 10% and 20%.
This has caused much confusion; it runs contrary to what seems to be a very negative backdrop for the global economy, with warnings… Read the article
For those of us who weren’t around during the dot.com boom and bust, this period can seem like an historical oddity. It’s often used as a classic example of the foolishness of human beings and the ability of markets to make blindingly obvious mistakes.
From the vantage point of hindsight… Read the article
In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):
We’ve discussed… Read the article
Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘
Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article
Last month Joe Wiggins noted that fund managers frequently claim to make money by exploiting the ‘behavioural biases of other investors,’ but are often unable to explain how they avoid falling victim to these biases themselves.
Now it could be that ‘exploiting behavioural bias’ is simply… Read the article
You may have seen charts like the one below before (possibly here or here) which suggest that investors and commentators find more to worry about than they really should:
This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article
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OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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