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A summary of Q1 2018. Chaos reigns: Trade, Tech, and Treasuries

3 Apr 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.

Instead of being about growth fears, the catalyst for the equity market drawdowns in early February was pressure on valuations caused by rising… Read the article

1 person likes this

Volatility – virus, bubble, or both?

9 Feb 2018
Eric Lonergan
Behavioural Finance Markets

This latest ‘flash crash’ is a notable event. There have been only three phases in last 25 years when the S&P500 has moved this rapidly in this short a period of time, a fact drawn to my attention by my perceptive colleague, Marc Beckenstrater (see figure 1). Similar moves in… Read the article

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There are two sides to every ratio: the Shiller P/E ratio, Chinese leverage problem and ‘denominator neglect’

31 Jan 2018
Alex Houlding
Behavioural Finance Value Investing

Stuart wrote last year on some of the challenges associated with relying solely upon the Shiller P/E as a measure of equity valuation. This debate has been widely covered and is somewhat moot at any rate, given that the US market is looking expensive relative to history… Read the article

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Thank goodness for the end of ‘easy money’

24 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance

Is it true that “the easy money has been made?”

This is something that it has been common to hear over the last couple of years and, it seems, is even more common today.

But, as Morgan Housel pointed out in 2015:

A… Read the article

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A summary of Q4 2017: Have we climbed the ‘wall of worry’? Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the boom

11 Jan 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.

Dave wrote in summer 2016 about a pivotal moment in investor psychology and asset pricing:… Read the article

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En route to Kilkenomics: a Bond Vigilantes and Episode Blog brainstorming video

27 Nov 2017
Jim Leaviss
Behavioural Finance

I made what is turning into an annual pilgrimage to the brilliant Kilkenomics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland, last weekend, this time along with Eric Lonergan and Tristan Hanson from M&G’s multi-asset fund management team.

En route, we met some clients in Dublin and then took the opportunity to set the… Read the article

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Black Friday highlights how we treat asset prices differently to other goods

27 Nov 2017
Jenny Rodgers
Behavioural Finance

The annual ‘Black Friday’ phenomenon is well known for producing some unusual human behaviour. Consumers rush to take advantage of lower prices, displaying the classic biases associated with group dynamics: myopia, and a fear of missing out. We often see people in a crowd doing things that… Read the article

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Is it time to short equity markets?

23 Nov 2017
Dave Fishwick
Behavioural Finance Markets

As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.

Extreme pessimism has given way to strong gains in equity markets, while the prevailing narrative has shifted from ‘secular stagnation’ to ‘synchronised global… Read the article

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Are markets ignoring the news? The Catalan crisis as a case study

30 Oct 2017
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance

We are told that markets are ignoring news flow today in the hunt for short term gains. In part this seems to be an issue of salience. The news which ‘feels’ more important is that which grabs the headlines: Korean missile tests, the unwinding (or not) of QE,… Read the article

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Thinking (and feeling) about risks

19 Oct 2017
Tristan Hanson
Behavioural Finance

New York, New York…

Imagine the excitement. In a moment of spontaneity, you’ve decided to treat yourself and your other half to a last minute trip to New York. You’ve selected the hotel, managed to get reservations at some highly recommended restaurants and even tickets for a Broadway show, which… Read the article

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Investment professionals only: Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website. This blog provides commentary and views prepared by M&G's Multi Asset team. Information shown on the blog should not be taken as advice or a recommendation to make an investment decision.
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Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.

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Welcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.

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