The term ‘episode‘ doesn’t lend itself to marketing: it doesn’t translate well into European languages and if you type it into a search engine it will bring up more about television shows than investing.
Category: Behavioural Finance
November has been a rollercoaster for investors and much has already been written about the ‘unprecedented’ and ‘exceptional’ rotation that occurred following Pfizer’s announcement about the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The primary focus of commentary has been the swing in underperforming stock markets relative to those that… Read the article
It is always staggering how quickly markets appear to move on from one issue to the next. Only six months ago (or 45% ago in Nasdaq-time) most investors (including us) were petrified as to the implications of the pandemic. Safety and… Read the article
Are we witnessing the bursting of a tech bubble? After eye-watering gains this year, the US technology sector saw declines of around 10% in only four trading days.
The New York Stock Exchange FANG+ Index had been up as much as 85% in 2020 (50% above even its ‘pre-COVID’ peak):… Read the article
With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.
It is just as hard to consider these rebounds in the context of economic data, which suggests… Read the article
But when it comes to forecasting economic data for the first half of 2020, for once we know what’s coming:
So far, all we can truly know in… Read the article
Since then… Read the article
Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article
Yesterday the US equity market (S&P 500) reached all-time highs. Indeed so far in 2019, many major equity markets are up between 10% and 20%.
This has caused much confusion; it runs contrary to what seems to be a very negative backdrop for the global economy, with warnings… Read the article
For those of us who weren’t around during the dot.com boom and bust, this period can seem like an historical oddity. It’s often used as a classic example of the foolishness of human beings and the ability of markets to make blindingly obvious mistakes.
From the vantage point of hindsight… Read the article