Despite the partial realignment of European long-dated government bond yields following the Euro crisis in 2012, there has been renewed divergence in yields in the last few years.

On a simplistic level, this runs contrary to improving fundamentals. While sharply accelerating Portuguese and Spanish debt levels partly explained… Read the article

Are asset markets “pausing for breath”? Since the relatively dramatic moves in many markets in the second half of last year, a lot of commentary suggests that things feel less eventful so far in 2017.

There are a number of biases evident in this view. Such commentary is hugely myopic… Read the article

Wednesday’s triggering of Article 50 was a non-event in financial markets; an event more symbolic than anything else. Meanwhile in the US, two Fed officials were discussing their views on what could happen to US interest rates.

The Boston Reserve President said that four rate “hikes”… Read the article

We have long written about the dangers of economic forecasting as an input into the investment process. The future is often highly surprising and nobody has a perfect model of how the economy works, which means forecasts will usually turn out to be wrong  – just ask any… Read the article