Last month Joe Wiggins noted that fund managers frequently claim to make money by exploiting the ‘behavioural biases of other investors,’ but are often unable to explain how they avoid falling victim to these biases themselves.
Now it could be that ‘exploiting behavioural bias’ is simply… Read the article
You may have seen charts like the one below before (possibly here or here) which suggest that investors and commentators find more to worry about than they really should:
This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article
In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:
So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:
This degree of correlation is unusual. Some described last year as the worst on record in terms of correlated… Read the article
Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article
Earlier this week the IMF released its latest economic outlook. It was the debut of the newly appointed and first female IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath.
She observed that “While global growth in 2018 remained close to post crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening”. Indeed, the… Read the article
The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:
In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to… Read the article
It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.
In January the watchwords were ‘melt up’ and ‘synchronised growth,’ today we are again on the lookout for signs of global recession.
How… Read the article
Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.
Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article
It is quite staggering how much sentiment on the global economy can change. In the middle of 2016 asset prices suggested that we’d never see meaningful growth again, by the end of 2017 ‘synchronised expansion’ was the order of the day.
Today the prevailing argument is that the world is… Read the article
“The world…has witnessed an extensive history of financial bubbles, expanding credit, and subsequent crises…We put inaccurate beliefs at the centre of the analysis of financial fragility”.
In a new book, “A Crisis of Beliefs”, economists Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer tackle the role of beliefs in financial… Read the article
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OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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