In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):

We’ve discussed… Read the article

Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘

Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article

You may have seen charts like the one below before (possibly here or here) which suggest that investors and commentators find more to worry about than they really should:

This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article

In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:

So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:

This degree of correlation is unusual. Some described last year as the worst on record in terms of correlated… Read the article

Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article

The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:

In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to… Read the article

It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.

In January the watchwords were ‘melt up’ and ‘synchronised growth,’ today we are again on the lookout for signs of global recession.

How… Read the article