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A summary of Q2 2019: European bonds can only rally

23 Jul 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):

We’ve discussed… Read the article

Is the market omniscient or foolish?

8 Jul 2019
Alex Houlding
Behavioural Finance Markets

Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘

Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article

Keeping ourselves honest – A response to Joe Wiggins

20 Jun 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance

Last month Joe Wiggins noted that fund managers frequently claim to make money by exploiting the ‘behavioural biases of other investors,’ but are often unable to explain how they avoid falling victim to these biases themselves.

Now it could be that ‘exploiting behavioural bias’ is simply… Read the article

Walking into recessions

6 Jun 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

You may have seen charts like the one below before (possibly here or here) which suggest that investors and commentators find more to worry about than they really should:

This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article

A summary of Q1 2019: When will diversification return?

3 Apr 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:

So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:

This degree of correlation is unusual. Some described last year as the worst on record in terms of correlated… Read the article

The Fed is data dependent, is the market?

21 Mar 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article

Could the IMF weaker growth projection be a good signal to back equities?

25 Jan 2019
Maria Municchi
Behavioural Finance Economics

Earlier this week the IMF released its latest economic outlook. It was the debut of the newly appointed and first female IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath.

She observed that “While global growth in 2018 remained close to post crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening”. Indeed, the… Read the article

A summary of Q4 2018: Be careful what you wish for

4 Jan 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:

In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to… Read the article

A year in episodes: 2018 and the year ahead

17 Dec 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

It is easy to lose sight of just how much investors have changed their minds about the global environment this year.

In January the watchwords were ‘melt up’ and ‘synchronised growth,’ today we are again on the lookout for signs of global… Read the article

An inverted yield curve… because the market has already done the Fed’s job for them

4 Dec 2018
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

Yesterday, the US yield curve became inverted. The yield on three-year Treasuries was temporarily (blink and you’ll miss it) lower than that of their two-year counterparts. This is, apparently, huge.

Many are worried because an inverted yield curve has frequently been a sign of upcoming… Read the article

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Investment professionals only: Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website. This blog provides commentary and views prepared by M&G's Multi Asset team. Information shown on the blog should not be taken as advice or a recommendation to make an investment decision.
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Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.

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Welcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.

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