The world is a profoundly surprising place. That was the case in 2019 – few people predicted a vintage year for both bonds and equities, with the latter outperforming despite no earnings growth. Already in 2020, we have been taken by surprise by events involving the US and Iran. What… Read the article
Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article
Yesterday the US equity market (S&P 500) reached all-time highs. Indeed so far in 2019, many major equity markets are up between 10% and 20%.
This has caused much confusion; it runs contrary to what seems to be a very negative backdrop for the global economy, with warnings… Read the article
In some ways, the third quarter of 2019 was a microcosm of the environment since the financial crisis.
Rapid declines in equity markets turned out to be a buying opportunity given a relatively rapid rebound:
While bond yields, despite threatening to sell-off from their lows, didn’t reach… Read the article
In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):
We’ve discussed… Read the article
Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘
Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article
It is now three years since Britain voted to leave the EU (in case anyone needed reminding). We are all aware of never-ending twists and turns in this saga, even if we are none the wiser as to the final conclusion. But, we ask, with the benefit of hindsight, how… Read the article
This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article
In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:
So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:
Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article