The term ‘episode‘ doesn’t lend itself to marketing: it doesn’t translate well into European languages and if you type it into a search engine it will bring up more about television shows than investing.
November has been a rollercoaster for investors and much has already been written about the ‘unprecedented’ and ‘exceptional’ rotation that occurred following Pfizer’s announcement about the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The primary focus of commentary has been the swing in underperforming stock markets relative to those that… Read the article
It is always staggering how quickly markets appear to move on from one issue to the next. Only six months ago (or 45% ago in Nasdaq-time) most investors (including us) were petrified as to the implications of the pandemic. Safety and… Read the article
Are we witnessing the bursting of a tech bubble? After eye-watering gains this year, the US technology sector saw declines of around 10% in only four trading days.
The New York Stock Exchange FANG+ Index had been up as much as 85% in 2020 (50% above even its ‘pre-COVID’ peak):… Read the article
Last week it was announced the UK had suffered a bigger GDP decline than any other major European economy in Q2 2020. Though this will prompt the usual political point-scoring, many had already anticipated that the UK would be one of the worst hit, simply due to… Read the article
It’s a cliché that not all emerging markets are the same, because it’s true.
Nor does everyone use the same definition of what an emerging market is: some will point to living standards and economic growth, others to the rule of law or governmental structures, still others to the depth… Read the article
The fiscal response to Covid-19 across many countries is set to increase debt-to-GDP ratios across the world and has prompted some staggering headlines.
Three areas of concern have been raised: whether growing debt will (i) increase the cost of future borrowing, (ii) impair growth, and (iii) be… Read the article
We’ve discussed in several posts how the market reaction to the coronavirus outbreak shared many ‘classic’ behavioural traits with episodes of the past:
With lockdown continuing and the tone of news flow deteriorating, it can be hard to reconcile the recent bounce in equity markets with how we may feel personally.
It is just as hard to consider these rebounds in the context of economic data, which suggests… Read the article
The world is a profoundly surprising place. That was the case in 2019 – few people predicted a vintage year for both bonds and equities, with the latter outperforming despite no earnings growth. Already in 2020, we have been taken by surprise by events involving the US and Iran. What… Read the article