Remember the ‘fragile five’? These were five emerging market currencies that were deemed to be most at risk of US policy tightening during the ‘taper tantrum’ of 2013. The main concerns for these economies centred on their vulnerability to foreign capital outflows.
Recently we’ve seen a re-emergence… Read the article
Volatility returned in February, but not the kind of volatility we have been used to for much of the period since the financial crisis.
Instead of being about growth fears, the catalyst for the equity market drawdowns in early February was pressure on valuations caused by rising… Read the article
It is always worrying to hear investors ask how managers performed over very short time horizons. It seems very unlikely that a couple of weeks’ performance can tell you much about a fund manager’s skill as opposed to luck.
But short time frames might be able to… Read the article
After performance weakness in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, UK property delivered a strong return in 2017. In the first of two guest posts looking at the property environment in different parts of the world, Tony Brown, CIO of M&G Real Estate, discusses where this leaves us in… Read the article
This latest ‘flash crash’ is a notable event. There have been only three phases in last 25 years when the S&P500 has moved this rapidly in this short a period of time, a fact drawn to my attention by my perceptive colleague, Marc Beckenstrater (see figure 1). Similar moves in… Read the article
One of the most common clichés of the last couple of years is the idea that we have been in ‘the most hated bull market in history.” Today attitudes are shifting.
Dave wrote in summer 2016 about a pivotal moment in investor psychology and asset pricing:… Read the article
While 2016 ‘felt’ very eventful for investors, the defining feature of markets in 2017 for many has been the lack of volatility.*
Does this mean that there were no ‘episodes’ during the year? And does this lack of volatility mean that it was harder to generate returns… Read the article
Here’s a short video I recorded with my multi-asset colleagues Steven Andrew and Tristan Hanson, in which we debate the highlights of 2017 and look ahead to 2018. After a year that has turned out to hold fewer surprises than many might have expected, what lies in store for financial… Watch the video
One should probably be wary of writing yet another article on Bitcoin. If the number of press articles and blog posts was an indicator of bubbles, then there would be little debate. Aside from the fact that it is now the middle of winter, Bitcoin would certainly satisfy all the… Read the article
As we have mentioned repeatedly on this blog, the change in market mood since the pivotal moment in the middle of 2016 has been staggering.
Extreme pessimism has given way to strong gains in equity markets, while the prevailing narrative has shifted from ‘secular stagnation’ to ‘synchronised global… Read the article
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OKWelcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.
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