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Why are stocks up when the world is so bleak, part 2: What is an asset price and what are PMIs?

8 Nov 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Economics Markets

Last week I wrote about the apparent confusion caused in some quarters by strong stock returns against a backdrop of weak macro and profits data. I argued that two important reasons behind this were the removal of rate pressure, and the unwind of the episode at the end of… Read the article

All-time why’s?: How can equities be up 20% if the backdrop is so negative?

30 Oct 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

Yesterday the US equity market (S&P 500) reached all-time highs. Indeed so far in 2019, many major equity markets are up between 10% and 20%.

This has caused much confusion; it runs contrary to what seems to be a very negative backdrop for the global economy, with warnings… Read the article

A summary of Q3 2019: The V-shaped and L-shaped recoveries

10 Oct 2019
Stuart Canning
Markets

In some ways, the third quarter of 2019 was a microcosm of the environment since the financial crisis.

Rapid declines in equity markets turned out to be a buying opportunity given a relatively rapid rebound:

While bond yields, despite threatening to sell-off from their lows, didn’t reach… Read the article

A summary of Q2 2019: European bonds can only rally

23 Jul 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

In spite of trade-war driven volatility in May, market behaviour in many major regions during the second quarter was characterised by positive returns from both equities and bonds (with Japanese and other Asian equity weakness a notable exception):

We’ve discussed… Read the article

Is the market omniscient or foolish?

8 Jul 2019
Alex Houlding
Behavioural Finance Markets

Sometimes the market is seen as an almost mystical force, sending signals that give us special insights about the future if only we can decipher what it’s ‘telling us.‘

Other times it’s characterised as a naïve and careless basket case,… Read the article

Brexit: Three years on

24 Jun 2019
Tristan Hanson
Markets

It is now three years since Britain voted to leave the EU (in case anyone needed reminding). We are all aware of never-ending twists and turns in this saga, even if we are none the wiser as to the final conclusion. But, we ask, with the benefit of hindsight, how… Read the article

Walking into recessions

6 Jun 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

You may have seen charts like the one below before (possibly here or here) which suggest that investors and commentators find more to worry about than they really should:

This certainly seems to have been the case for bulk of… Read the article

A summary of Q1 2019: When will diversification return?

3 Apr 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

In 2018, almost all major asset class categories delivered negative returns:

So far in 2019, almost all major assets have done the opposite:

This degree of correlation is unusual. Some described last year as the worst on record in terms of correlated… Read the article

The Fed is data dependent, is the market?

21 Mar 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

Our sense at the end of 2018 was that the volatility being seen in markets at that time was episodic in nature. Yes, there were things to be worried about from a growth standpoint, but the rapidity and nature of price moves suggested that… Read the article

A summary of Q4 2018: Be careful what you wish for

4 Jan 2019
Stuart Canning
Behavioural Finance Markets

The last quarter of 2018 saw some significant equity weakness, which came in two bouts:

In October, price weakness emerged in response to rising rate expectations in the US. However, any investors hoping that an abatement of those pressures would support equity markets were to… Read the article

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Investment professionals only: Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website. This blog provides commentary and views prepared by M&G's Multi Asset team. Information shown on the blog should not be taken as advice or a recommendation to make an investment decision.
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Please note the content on this website is for Investment Professionals only and should be shared responsibly. No other persons should rely on the information contained within this website.

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Welcome to the M&G Multi Asset Team’s Allocation blog, previously known as the Episode blog. We have changed the name of our blog to resonate better with our readers in Europe, however, the content and purpose of the blog has not changed. The Allocation blog continues to aim to provide unique market perspectives from our dedicated team of experienced asset allocators.

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