In Robert Louis Stevenson’s short story “The Bottle Imp” a man is sold a demonic bottle which grants the owner the power to gain all he desires. There are just two catches; first, if he should die with the bottle still in his possession he will be condemned… Read the article
‘When markets move a lot there must be a reason why.’ Most of the time this mind-set works well for us: there is an earnings announcement, policy decision, or macro data release, and markets appear to respond (sometimes) in the way you would expect.
Other price moves are not so… Read the article
We define episodes as phases where emotion drives asset prices. It is a name that has come in for criticism: some think it has associations with mental disorder; others think of TV shows. It doesn’t score well in marketing focus groups.
But we think it is an apt description of… Read the article
So after one of the most eagerly anticipated FOMC meetings ever, at last we know…that we still don’t know when the US Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed’) will raise rates.
It looks like some traders have been waiting in vain for exciting news from the Fed, which has decided… Read the article
You have just returned from a relaxing summer holiday sunbathing in Portugal, or sailing in the Med or maybe a more adventurous one discovering California’s natural beauty. However, markets don’t seem to agree with your current state of mind…and just a glance at WEI Bloomberg screen or recent NAV moves… Read the article
Apparently there is a 40% chance that Greece will leave the EU. Or there’s a 25% chance, or an 80% chance. Alan Greenspan says it is just a matter of time. George Soros says it’s 50/50. UK bookmaker William Hill has stopped taking… Read the article
On Tuesday the FTSE 100 index reached price levels last seen at the top of the tech bubble.
This has grabbed some attention in an investment media always hungry for content, and it is the type of headline that appeals. It is factually correct (which always helps) but… Read the article
A Bloomberg headline yesterday provided the breaking news that the “ECB Bolsters Economic Recovery”. The article covers the latest European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers from Markit Economics, which indicate expansion in much of the Eurozone.
We believe the longer-term trend in European PMIs is a reasonable indicator… Read the article
The victory of left-wing anti-austerity party, Syriza, in Sunday’s Greek election has reignited concerns about the potential for Greece to default on its debts, and the country’s future in the euro. While Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has expressed the intention to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout, he has been… Read the article
In recent weeks, a number of factors – Greek politics, French, German and Chinese PMIs, the continued decline in the oil price – have come together to rattle investor confidence and trigger some dramatic changes of direction across global financial markets, in extremely short-term phases.
Turbulence in Russian currency markets… Read the article